Volatility lab

The trust page — historical realized vol against interval-estimated vol, from the same feed.

cadence formula

σ ≈ d · √(Y / T̄)d = 0.5% · Y = 31,536,000.00s · T̄ = mean interval of the last N rounds

T̄ (fixed rounds)

33.4m

interval σ (measured)

62.7%

vs realized

1.04×

BTC realized 60%

Above is computed live from 220 fixed oracle timestamps on BTC — no price, only spacing.

Interval vs realized

Every market lands on the diagonal — interval vol reads the same volatility the history does.

risk index

marketrealizedintervalratio

DOGE88.0%89.7%1.02×

MSTR92.0%89.1%0.97×

SMCI85.0%83.4%0.98×

TSLA80.0%74.5%0.93×

SOL78.0%76.8%0.98×

COIN74.0%71.5%0.97×

NVDA68.0%67.0%0.99×

PLTR70.0%67.5%0.96×

ETH66.0%62.1%0.94×

ARM60.0%61.8%1.03×

BTC60.0%61.3%1.02×

AMD55.0%57.3%1.04×

META40.0%38.9%0.97×

GOOG32.0%33.0%1.03×

IWM19.0%19.6%1.03×

QQQ15.0%14.7%0.98×

SPY12.0%11.9%0.99×